A ranar 29 ga Afrilu, 2025, an ba da rahoton matsakaicin farashin A00 aluminum a kasuwar tabo ta kogin Yangtze a yuan/ton 20020, tare da karuwar yau da kullun na yuan 70; Babban kwantiragin Shanghai Aluminum, 2506, ya rufe a 19930 yuan/ton. Ko da yake ya ɗan bambanta a cikin zaman dare, har yanzu yana riƙe babban matakin tallafi na yuan 19900 da rana. Bayan wannan haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin mallaka na duniya yana faɗuwa ga ƙarancin tarihi da haɓakar wasannin siyasa:
Ƙididdigar aluminium na LME ya ragu zuwa ton 417575, tare da kasa da mako guda na kwanakin da ake samuwa, da kuma farashin makamashi mai yawa a Turai (tare da farashin iskar gas ya koma 35 Tarayyar Turai / megawatt sa'a) yana hana ci gaban ci gaba da samarwa.
Kididdigar zamantakewar Aluminum ta Shanghai ta ragu da kashi 6.23% zuwa tan 178597 a mako guda. Sakamakon yawan sakin kayan gida da odar motoci a yankin kudancin kasar, kudin da ake samu ya zarce yuan/ton 200, kuma gidan ajiyar na Foshan ya yi jerin gwano na fiye da kwanaki 3 don karbar kayayyakin.
Ⅰ. Dabarun Tuƙi: Buƙatar Juriya da Rugujewar Kuɗi
1. Bukatar sabon makamashi yana kan gaba, kuma sassan gargajiya suna fuskantar farfadowa
Sakamakon ƙarshe na gaggawa don shigar da hotuna: A watan Afrilu, samar da samfurori na hoto ya karu da 17% a wata a wata, kuma buƙatun buƙatun aluminum ya karu da 22% kowace shekara. Koyaya, yayin da kullin manufofin ke gabatowa a watan Mayu, wasu kamfanoni sun yi galaba akan oda a gaba.
Haɓaka saurin nauyi na Mota: Adadin aluminium da ake amfani da su a cikin sabbin motocin makamashi a kowace abin hawa ya zarce kilogiram 350, yana haifar da ƙimar aiki na farantin aluminum, tsiri da masana'antar foil zuwa 82%. Koyaya, a cikin Afrilu, haɓakar tallace-tallacen motoci ya ragu zuwa 12%, kuma yawan tasirin ciniki a cikin manufofin ya raunana.
Ƙarshen layin umarni na grid na wutar lantarki: Jiha Grid's na biyu batch na matsananci-high irin ƙarfin lantarki kara da aluminum kayan ne 143000 ton, da aluminum na USB Enterprises suna aiki a cikakken iya aiki, goyon bayan aluminum iyakacin duniya samar don kula da wani shekaru biyar high.
2. A gefen farashi, akwai iyaka biyu: kankara da wuta
Matsalolin wuce haddi alumina ya bayyana: sake dawowa da samarwa a cikin ma'adinan Shanxi ya tura farashin bauxite zuwa $ 80 / ton, farashin tabo na alumina ya faɗi ƙasa da yuan / ton 2900, farashin aluminum electrolytic ya ragu zuwa yuan / ton 16500, kuma matsakaicin riba na masana'antu ya karu zuwa yuan / ton 3700.
Green aluminum premium Highlights: Yunnan hydropower aluminum ton kudin ya kasa da yuan 2000 fiye da thermal ikon, da babban ribar kamfanoni kamar Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. ya zarce matsakaicin masana'antu da kashi 5 bisa dari, accelerating da yarda da thermal ikon samar da wutar lantarki.
Ⅱ. Wasan Macro: Manufar 'takobi mai kaifi biyu' hawaye ban da tsammanin kasuwa
1. Manufofin ci gaba na cikin gida sun yi shinge ga haɗarin buƙatun waje
Gine-ginen gine-gine na gine-ginen gine-gine: Hukumar Ci Gaba da Gyara ta Kasa tana shirin fitar da jerin ayyukan "dual" na tsawon shekara guda kafin karshen watan Yuni, wanda ake sa ran zai haifar da karuwar 500000 ton a cikin amfani da aluminum.
Hasashen manufofin sa hannun jari: Babban bankin kasar ya ba da sanarwar "raguwar rangwamen da ake bukata a kan lokaci da kuma yawan kudin ruwa", da kuma tsammanin sa hannun jari ya kara zurfafa kwararar kudade zuwa kasuwannin kayayyaki.
2. Bakar swan na ketare 'barazanar karuwa
Manufofin harajin Amurka da aka maimaita: sanya harajin kashi 70% akanaluminum kayayyakindaga kasar Sin don dakile fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje kai tsaye, wanda ke shafar sarkar masana'antu a kaikaice kamar na'urorin gida da na motoci. Ƙididdigar ƙididdiga ta nuna cewa bayyanar aluminum zuwa Amurka shine 2.3%.
Bukatar rauni a Turai: Adadin sabbin rajistar mota a cikin EU a cikin kwata na farko ya ragu da 1.9% kowace shekara, kuma karuwar samar da Trimet a Jamus ya kawar da sake dawo da sararin aluminium na London. Darajar musayar Shanghai ta London ta tashi zuwa 8.3, kuma asarar da aka shigo da ita ta wuce yuan 1000/ton.
Ⅲ. Yaƙin kuɗi: babban rarrabuwar kawuna yana ƙaruwa, jujjuyawar sashe yana haɓaka
Yaƙi na ɗan gajeren lokaci a kasuwannin gaba: Babban hannun jarin Aluminum na Shanghai ya ragu da kuri'a 10393 a kowace rana, dogon matsayi na Yong'an Futures ya ragu da kuri'a 12000, gajeriyar matsayi na Guotai Jun'an ya karu da kuri'a 1800, kuma hadarin kin kudi ya karu.
Kasuwar hannun jari tana da bambance-bambance a bayyane: sashin ra'ayi na aluminum ya karu da kashi 1.05% a cikin kwana guda, amma masana'antar Aluminum ta kasar Sin ta fadi da kashi 0.93%, yayin da masana'antar Aluminum ta Nanshan ta karu da kashi 5.76 bisa yanayin da ake ciki, tare da kudaden da aka mayar da hankali kan samar da wutar lantarki ta aluminum da manyan shugabannin sarrafawa.
Ⅳ. Outlook don gaba: Kasuwar Pulse ƙarƙashin ma'auni mai ƙarfi
Gajeren lokaci (watanni 1-2)
Ƙarfafar farashi mai ƙarfi: Taimakon ƙarancin ƙima da buƙatun cika biki, Aluminum na Shanghai na iya gwada matakin matsin lamba na yuan 20300, amma ya kamata a yi taka tsantsan game da sake dawo da dalar Amurka sakamakon jinkirin rage yawan kuɗin ruwa na Tarayyar Tarayya.
Gargadi na haɗari: Canjin kwatsam a manufofin fitarwa na bauxite na Indonesia da rikicin isar da saƙon da takunkumin aluminum na Rasha ya haifar na iya haifar da haɗarin ajiyar tilas.
Matsakaici zuwa dogon lokaci (rabi na biyu na 2025)
Daidaita daidaiton ma'auni: Ƙarfafa ƙarfin samar da aluminium electrolytic na duniya bai wuce tan miliyan 1 a kowace shekara ba, kuma buƙatun sabon makamashi yana ƙaruwa da tan 800000 a kowace shekara, yana sa yana da wahala a cike gibin.
Sake gina sarkar masana'antu: Adadin amfani da aluminium da aka sake fa'ida ya zarce 85%, kuma haɗin gwiwar fasahar simintin mutuwa ya haifar da babbar riba mai sarrafawa zuwa 20%. Kamfanoni masu shingen fasaha za su jagoranci zagaye na gaba na ci gaba.
[Bayanan da ke cikin labarin an samo su ne daga intanet, kuma ra'ayoyin don tunani ne kawai kuma ba a yi amfani da su azaman tushen saka hannun jari ba]
Lokacin aikawa: Mayu-06-2025