Bisa ga bayanan ƙididdiga na aluminum da London Metal Exchange (LME) da Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) suka fitar, a ranar 21 ga Maris, LME kayan aikin aluminum ya fadi zuwa ton 483925, yana buga sabon ƙananan tun daga Mayu 2024; A daya hannun kuma, kididdigar aluminium ta Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) ta ragu da kashi 6.95% a mako-mako zuwa tan 233240, yana nuna bambancin yanayin “tsatse a waje da sako-sako a ciki”. Wannan bayanan ya bambanta sosai da ƙarfin aikin LME farashin aluminium yana daidaitawa a $ 2300 / ton da manyan kwangilolin aluminium na Shanghai ya tashi ta yuan / ton 20800 a wannan rana, yana nuna hadaddun wasan na duniya.aluminum masana'antusarkar karkashin wadata da bukatu sake fasalin da gasar geopolitical.
Ƙarƙashin ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun kayan aluminium na LME na watanni goma shine ainihin sakamakon rawar da ke tsakanin rikicin Rasha da Ukraine da manufofin fitarwa na Indonesia. Bayan da Rusal ta yi hasarar kasuwanninta na Turai saboda takunkumin da aka kakaba mata, ta sauya kayanta zuwa Asiya. Koyaya, haramcin fitar da bauxite da Indonesiya ta aiwatar a cikin 2025 ya haifar da tsauraran wadatar alumina na duniya, a kaikaice yana haɓaka farashin kayan aluminium na LME. Bayanai sun nuna cewa a watan Janairu da Fabrairun 2025, fitar da Bauxite na Indonesiya ya ragu da kashi 32% duk shekara, yayin da farashin alumina na Australiya ya karu da kashi 18% a duk shekara zuwa dala 3200/ton, wanda hakan ya kara dagula ribar masu fasa kwauri a kasashen waje. A bangaren bukatu, masana'antun kera motoci na Turai sun hanzarta mika layin samar da kayayyaki zuwa kasar Sin don gujewa hadarin kudin fito, tare da samun karuwar 210% a duk shekara a cikin shigo da kayayyakin kasar Sin na aluminium electrolytic (tare da shigo da kayayyaki ya kai tan 610000 a watan Janairu da Fabrairu). Wannan 'cikin buƙatun waje' yana sanya ƙirƙira LME alama ce mai mahimmanci wacce ke nuna saɓanin wadatar da buƙatu na ƙasa da ƙasa.
Ƙaddamar da ƙididdiga na aluminium na cikin gida na Shanghai yana da alaƙa da kusanci da sake zagayowar iyawar samarwa da daidaita tsammanin manufofin. Ba a kai ga cimma nasarar rage yawan samar da wutar lantarki ba (kimanin tan 500000) sakamakon karancin wutar lantarki a Yunnan, Sichuan da sauran wurare, yayin da sabon aikin da aka kara (ton 600000) a yankuna masu rahusa kamar Mongoliya ta ciki da Xinjiang ya shiga lokacin samar da kayayyaki. Ƙarfin aikin aluminum na electrolytic na gida ya haura zuwa tan miliyan 42, ya kai matsayi mai girma na tarihi. Kodayake amfani da aluminium na gida ya karu da 2.3% a kowace shekara a cikin Janairu da Fabrairu, ƙananan gidaje masu rauni (tare da raguwar 10% na shekara-shekara a cikin yankunan da aka kammala na gidaje na kasuwanci) da kuma raguwa a fitar da kayan aiki na gida (-8% shekara-shekara a cikin Janairu da Fabrairu) ya haifar da gagarumin koma baya na kaya. Ya kamata a lura cewa yawan karuwar zuba jarurruka na gida a cikin watan Maris ya wuce tsammanin (+ 12.5% a kowace shekara a cikin Janairu da Fabrairu), da kuma farkon safa na wasu ayyukan samar da kayayyakin more rayuwa ya inganta wani 15% na wata-wata a wata karuwa a aluminum profile umarni, wanda ya bayyana da juriya na gajeren lokaci rebound a cikin Shanghai aluminum kaya.
Daga hangen nesa, cikakken layin farashi na aluminium electrolytic na cikin gida ya kasance barga a yuan / ton 16500, tare da farashin anode da aka riga aka yi gasa yana riƙe da babban yuan / ton 4300 kuma farashin alumina kaɗan ya faɗi zuwa 2600 yuan/ton. Dangane da tsadar wutar lantarki, kamfanonin da ke cikin gida na Mongoliya sun rage farashin wutar lantarki ta hanyar kudin wutar lantarki mai kore, tare da ceto sama da yuan 200 kan kowace tan na aluminum. Duk da haka, karancin wutar lantarki a Yunnan ya haifar da karuwar farashin wutar lantarki da kashi 10 cikin 100 na kamfanonin aluminium na cikin gida, lamarin da ya ta'azzara bambancin iya aiki a yankin saboda bambancin farashi.
Dangane da halayen kudi, bayan taron kudaden ruwa na watan Maris na babban bankin Tarayyar Amurka ya fitar da siginar dowish, darajar dalar Amurka ta fadi zuwa 104.5, inda ta ba da goyon baya ga farashin aluminum na LME, amma karfafa darajar kudin kasar Sin yuan (ma'aunin CFETS ya tashi zuwa 105.3) ya dakile yuan aluminium na Shanghai.
Magana ta fasaha, yuan / ton 20800 muhimmin matakin juriya ne ga Aluminum na Shanghai. Idan za a iya karya ta yadda ya kamata, zai iya ƙaddamar da tasiri akan 21000 yuan / ton; Akasin haka, idan tallace-tallace na gidaje ya kasa sake dawowa, matsa lamba na ƙasa zai karu sosai.
Lokacin aikawa: Maris 25-2025