Yanzumasana'antar aluminumya shiga sabon tsarin "ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki da juriyar buƙata", kuma ƙarin farashi yana samun goyon baya daga ƙa'idodi masu ƙarfi. Morgan Stanley ya yi hasashen cewa farashin aluminum zai kai dala $3250/ton a kwata na biyu na 2026, tare da babban tunanin da ke tattare da fa'idodi biyu na gibin wadata da buƙata da muhallin macro.
Bangaren wadata: Fadada karfin aiki yana da iyaka, sassauci yana ci gaba da raguwa
Yawan samar da aluminum mai amfani da wutar lantarki a kasar Sin ya kai tan miliyan 45, inda karfin aiki zai kai tan miliyan 43.897 nan da shekarar 2025, kuma yawan amfani da shi zai kai kashi 97.55%, kusan a cike yake, inda aka kara kusan tan miliyan 1 na sabbin sarari.
Ci gaban ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki a ƙasashen waje yana da rauni, tare da matsakaicin ci gaban shekara-shekara na kashi 1.5% kawai daga 2025 zuwa 2027. Turai ta ci gaba da rage samarwa saboda hauhawar farashin wutar lantarki, yayin da Arewacin Amurka ke da iyaka a faɗaɗawa saboda gasar wutar lantarki a cibiyoyin bayanai na AI. Indonesia da Gabas ta Tsakiya ne kawai ke da ƙaramin ƙaruwa amma kayayyakin more rayuwa suna da iyaka.
Sauyin yanayi na kore da hauhawar farashin wutar lantarki sun kara matsin lamba ga masana'antu, wanda hakan ya kara yawan wutar lantarki mai kore a China da kuma aiwatar da harajin carbon a Tarayyar Turai, wanda hakan ya kara matsa lamba ga samar da kayayyaki masu tsada.
Bangaren buƙata: Fannin da ke tasowa ya ɓarke, jimillar yawan amfanin ƙasa yana ƙaruwa a hankali
Matsakaicin karuwar buƙatun aluminum a duniya a kowace shekara shine kashi 2% -3%, kuma ana sa ran zai kai tan miliyan 770-78 nan da shekarar 2026. Fasahohin da ke tasowa kamar sabbin motocin makamashi, ajiyar makamashin photovoltaic, da cibiyoyin bayanai na AI sun zama manyan abubuwan da ke haifar da hakan.
Karin yawan shigar sabbin motocin makamashi ya haifar da karuwar amfani da aluminum a kowace mota (fiye da kashi 30% fiye da na motocin mai), kuma karuwar karfin shigar da photovoltaic a kowace shekara da fiye da kashi 20% ya taimaka wajen bukatar aluminum. Bukatar da ake da ita a fannin samar da wutar lantarki da marufi ta ci gaba da bin sahun gaba.
An ƙara yawan haɗa aluminum kai tsaye da ruwa zuwa sama da kashi 90%, wanda hakan ya rage samar da ingot na aluminum da ke cikin kaya kuma ya ƙara ta'azzara yanayin kasuwa mai tsauri.
Siginar Macro da kasuwa: ma'anoni masu kyau da yawa
Ana sa ran rage darajar riba a duniya a bayyane yake, kuma a ƙarƙashin yanayin raguwar darajar dala ta Amurka, farashin aluminum da aka ƙiyasta a dalar Amurka yana da goyon baya na asali.
Bukatar masu zuba jari ga kadarorin zahiri na ƙaruwa, kuma ƙarfe marasa ƙarfe, a matsayin zaɓi don hana hauhawar farashin kaya da kuma rarraba kadarori iri-iri, suna jawo hankalin masu zuba jari.
Matsakaicin farashin jan ƙarfe/aluminum yana kan gaba a cikin jerin kwanan nan, wanda ya zama muhimmiyar alamar sigina don hauhawar farashin aluminum daga baya.
Abubuwan da ke Faruwa a Masana'antu a Nan Gaba: Damar Tsarin da ke Haskakawa
Gibin da ake da shi tsakanin samar da kayayyaki da bukatar kayayyaki yana kara fadada a hankali, kuma Morgan Stanley ya yi hasashen cewa karancin kayayyaki zai bayyana daga shekarar 2026 zuwa gaba, tare da kayayyakin da ake da su a duniya a matsayin wadanda suka yi karanci a tarihi, wanda hakan ke kara kara saurin canzawar farashi.
Bambancin yankuna yana ƙara ta'azzara, gibin wadata da buƙatar kayayyaki a China yana ƙaruwa kowace shekara, kuma dogaro da shigo da kayayyaki daga ƙasashen waje yana ƙaruwa, wanda ke haifar da kwararar ciniki na "ƙara yawan aluminum ingots na ƙasashen waje → China".
Ribar masana'antu ta ta'allaka ne a kan manyan kamfanoni masu albarkatun wutar lantarki masu amfani da makamashi mai kyau da kuma fa'idodin farashin makamashi, yayin da ƙarfin samarwa ke canzawa zuwa yankuna masu rahusa kamar Indonesia da Gabas ta Tsakiya, amma ci gaban ya ragu fiye da yadda ake tsammani.
Lokacin Saƙo: Disamba-19-2025