Kasuwar aluminium ta duniya ƙarancin ƙima tana ƙaruwa, ƙarancin tsari yana fuskantar haɗari

Kasuwancin aluminium na London Metal Exchange (LME) yana ci gaba da ƙasa, yana faduwa zuwa tan 322000 tun daga ranar 17 ga Yuni, yana buga sabon ƙasa tun 2022 da raguwar 75% daga kololuwar shekaru biyu da suka gabata. Bayan wannan bayanan shine zurfin wasa na samarwa da tsarin buƙatu a cikin kasuwar aluminium: ƙimar tabo na aluminium na wata uku ya canza daga ragi na $ 42 / ton a cikin Afrilu zuwa ƙimar kuɗi, kuma farashin tsawan dare ya tashi zuwa $ 12.3 / ton, yana nuna matsin lamba na dogon matsayi don matsawa matsayi.

Rikicin kayan ƙira: raguwar ruwa mai alaƙa da wasannin geopolitical

Tun daga watan Yuni, ton 150 na rasidin sito ne kawai aka yiwa rijista don kayan aluminium na LME, kuma kashi biyu bisa uku na abubuwan da ake da su shine aluminium na Rasha wanda Amurka da Burtaniya suka haramta. Kasar Sin ta kara saurin karbar tan 741000 na aluminium na Rasha daga watan Janairu zuwa Afrilu, karuwar shekara-shekara na 48%. Koyaya, ƙarfin samar da aluminium electrolytic na cikin gida ya kusanci rufin manufofin tan miliyan 45, kuma ƙididdiga na lokacin da ya gabata ya faɗi daidai gwargwado zuwa ƙarancin watanni 16. A ƙarƙashin matsin lamba na samarwa da buƙata, yawan kuɗin kasuwar aluminium yana nuna yanayin "kisa sau biyu".

Sake Tsarin Kasuwanci: Boye-sauyen Sauye-sauye a Gudawar Aluminum Sharar gida

Tsarin ciniki na duniya na aluminium mai jujjuya yana fuskantar canji mai ban mamaki: Amurka tana amfani da keɓancewa na haraji don jawo hankalin dawo da juzu'in aluminum, wanda ke yin tasiri ga tsarin masana'antar aluminum da aka sake yin fa'ida. Bayanai sun nuna cewa samar da aluminium da kasar Sin ta sake yin amfani da su zai kai tan miliyan 10.5 a shekarar 2024, wanda ya kai kashi 20% na yawan kayayyakin aluminium. Ko da yake, tsaurara takunkumin shigo da kayayyaki a kasashen kudu maso gabashin Asiya ya tilastawa kamfanonin kasar Sin kafa masana'antu a Malaysia da Thailand don sarrafa shara marasa inganci. A sa'i daya kuma, Tarayyar Turai na inganta dogaro da kai wajen sake yin amfani da aluminium mai jujjuyawa, kuma adadin da aka sake sarrafa na kasar Japan ya kai kashi 100%. Gasar duniya don ƙarancin carbon carbon yana ƙara yin zafi.

Canjin masana'antu: daidaitattun buƙatu na ƙarshe da maƙasudin manufofin

Canjin tsarin masana'antar Aluminum na kasar Sin yana hanzarta: A cikin 2024, adadin samfuran da aka kara masu daraja kamar jirgin sama.aluminum farantida ƙarfin baturi a cikin samar da aluminum na ton miliyan 42 zai karu zuwa 35%. Yawan aluminium da ake amfani da su a cikin sabbin motocin makamashi ya yi tsalle daga 3% a cikin 2020 zuwa 12%, ya zama babban injin haɓakar buƙatu. Koyaya, dogaro na waje na bauxite ya wuce 70%, ƙarfin rufin aluminium na lantarki yana iyakance, kuma haɗe tare da matsa lamba na EU Carbon Border Tax (CBAM), haɓaka masana'antar yana fuskantar matsaloli masu yawa.

Halayen gaba: Kalubalen tsari a zamanin ƙarancin ƙima

Bincike ya nuna cewa halin matsi na aluminium na LME na yanzu ya zarce hasashe na ɗan gajeren lokaci kuma ya samo asali zuwa gwajin damuwa don juriyar sarkar samar da aluminium ta duniya. Idan ƙasa mai ƙarancin ƙima ta ci gaba, kasuwa na iya canzawa daga “ragi na cyclical” zuwa “karancin tsari”. Kamfanoni suna buƙatar faɗakarwa game da tasirin tasirin kasada na geopolitical, sauye-sauyen manufofin kasuwanci, da ƙayyadaddun iya aiki, da ci gaba a cikin fasahar aluminium da aka sake yin fa'ida da ƙayyadaddun kayan ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun abubuwa na iya zama mabuɗin shiga.