Ⅰ. Ƙarshen samarwa: "Ƙarancin faɗaɗa" na alumina da aluminum electrolytic
1. Alumina: Matsalolin Fursunoni na Babban Ci gaba da Ƙididdiga Mai Girma
Bisa kididdigar da hukumar kididdiga ta kasar Sin ta bayar, an ce, yawan alumina da kasar Sin ta samar ya kai tan miliyan 7.475 a watan Maris na shekarar 2025 (+10.3% a kowace shekara), inda aka samu adadin da ya kai tan miliyan 22.596 a rubu'in farko (+12.0% a kowace shekara). Duk da ci gaba da fadada samar da kayayyaki, kasuwa ta fada cikin mummunan yanayi na "kara yawan samar da kayayyaki ba tare da samun kudin shiga ba"
Abin da ya wuce kima yana ƙaruwa:Ƙididdiga na zamantakewa na alumina na cikin gida ya wuce tan miliyan 3.958, tare da matsa lamba daga buɗe taga shigo da (Farashin FOB na Australiya ya faɗi zuwa $ 373 / ton), kuma farashin tabo ya faɗi ƙasa da layin farashin kuɗi a yankin Shanxi (3250 yuan / ton).
Matsalolin tsada don rage samarwa:Masana'antar Alumina a Henan, Guizhou da sauran yankuna sun fara kulawa saboda asarar tsabar kuɗi, wanda ya haifar da raguwar 2.85% a wata a cikin ƙarfin aiki zuwa tan miliyan 88.6 a kowace shekara a cikin Maris. Duk da haka, sakin tan miliyan 1 na sabon ikon samar da kayayyaki a Indonesiya ya ta'azzara wuce gona da iri a duniya.
2. Electrolytic aluminum: da "m balance" a karkashin samar iya aiki rufi
Samar da aluminium na electrolytic a cikin Maris shine ton miliyan 3.746 (+ 4.4% shekara-shekara), kuma yawan samarwa a cikin kwata na farko shine ton miliyan 11.066 (+ 3.2% kowace shekara). Duk da sake dawo da noma a yankin kudu maso yamma (tare da Yunnan Hongtai yana da cikakken ikon samar da ton miliyan 1.5), manufofin samar da kayayyaki sun takure ta hanyar manufofi.
Maye gurbin iyawa ya mamaye:Sichuan, Guangxi da sauran yankuna sun dawo da samar da kayayyaki musamman ta hanyar maye gurbinsu, yayin da Baotou Aluminum ya janye karfin samar da tsoho don daidaita karuwar, wanda ya haifar da takaitaccen ci gaban samar da kayayyaki.
Ragewar ƙira yana haɓaka:A farkon Afrilu, ƙididdigar zamantakewar al'umma na electrolytic aluminum ya ragu zuwa ton 744000 (shekara-shekara -138000 ton), da kuma LME kaya kuma ya koma 459000 ton, goyon bayan juriya na aluminum farashin.
Ⅱ. A gefen buƙatar: "tsagewar tsarin" tsakanin waƙoƙin gargajiya da masu tasowa
1. Filin gargajiya: Kisa sau biyu na gine-gine da fitarwa
Sarkar dukiya ta ci gaba da raguwa:daga Janairu zuwa Maris, alamar tallace-tallace na tallace-tallace na gidaje na kasuwanci ya kasance a cikin "sanyi", ƙimar ginin gine-ginen gine-ginen ya kasance kawai 61%, kuma yawan ci gaban samar da aluminum (1.3%) ya kasance mai mahimmanci fiye da girma na samar da aluminum electrolytic.
Ana fuskantar harin kuɗin fito da kayayyaki:Farashin aluminium na Amurka akan China ya tashi daga 104% zuwa 145%, tare da fitar da aluminum a cikin Janairu da Fabrairu ya ragu da kashi 4.5% a shekara. Kamfanoni suna juyowa zuwa kasuwancin jigilar kayayyaki na kudu maso gabashin Asiya a matsayin mafaka mai aminci.
2. Sabon makamashi da masana'antu masu girma: buƙatar sababbin injuna
Girman fashewaraluminum gami:A watan Maris, samar da aluminum gami ya kai 1.655 ton miliyan (shekara-shekara + 16.2%), kore ta nauyi na sabon makamashi motocin (hanzari magnesium aluminum musanya) da kuma bukatar photovoltaic Frames (amfani da sabon gida farashin lantarki manufofin).
Nasarorin da aka samu a cikin gano manyan kayan aluminium: Dongqing na Musamman Materials cikin nasarar gwaji ya samar da manyan bututun walda na magnesium, odar gunkin alloy na Longi Corporation ya karu da kashi 35% a duk shekara, da sauya shigo da kaya a cikin manyan filayen aikace-aikace.
Ⅲ.Kudi da Farashin: Rugujewar Alumina vs. Fadada Riba na Aluminum Electrolytic
1. Cost kwana sake ginawa
Aluminum oxide ya fada cikin 'karkashin mutuwa':Farashin bauxite na cikin gida ya sassauta (saukar da kashi 5% a wata a cikin yankin Jin Yu), farashin kayan taimako irin su caustic soda da kwal sun ragu, kuma farashin ma'aunin masana'antu ya ragu zuwa yuan / ton 3158, amma farashin ya faɗi ko da sauri (farashin tabo na Shanxi ya faɗi ƙasa da yuan 3000).
Fadada ribar riba don aluminum electrolytic:Adadin farashin alumina ya ragu zuwa kashi 40% (55% a shekarar 2024), yawan ribar da masana'antar aluminium ta lantarki ta samu ya kai yuan/ton 3700, kuma yawan ribar da kamfanonin samar da wutar lantarki na Yunnan (kamar Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd.) suka samu ya zarce kashi 25%.
2. Ƙara bambancin farashin
Alumina oscillation na kasa da kasa:Tasirin hanyoyin da ba su da tsada a ƙasashen waje (Indonesia ta ƙara ton miliyan 6.5 na ƙarfin samarwa da za a saka hannun jari) da kuma fitar da sabbin damar samar da gida (aikin tan miliyan 2 na Guangxi ya kai cikakken samarwa a watan Afrilu) ya kawar da sake dawo da sararin samaniya, kuma ana sa ran kewayon aiki na kwata na biyu shine 2800-3200 yuan/ton.
High resilience na electrolytic aluminum:LME farashin aluminium ya kasance barga a cikin kewayon 2450-2550 dalar Amurka / ton, kuma babban kwangilar aluminium na Shanghai yana goyan bayan ƙarancin ƙima da tsammanin manufofin (sabuntawa na "sabuntawa na kayan aiki" na gida), tare da ɗan gajeren lokaci na 20500 yuan / ton.
Ⅳ. Ciniki na Duniya da Manufofin: Tariff 'Grey Rhino' da Canjin Kore
1. Tasirin sarkar wasan harajin Amurka na China
Sake fasalin sarkar masana'antar kera motoci:Amurka ta sanya harajin kashi 25 cikin 100 kan motocin da ake shigowa da su daga waje, lamarin da ya tilastawa masana'antar Tesla ta Mexico dakatar da kera kayayyaki. Matsakaicin fitar da aluminium na kasar Sin zuwa Amurka ya ragu zuwa 5% (kamfanoni irin su Wan'an Technology suna haɓaka canjin su zuwa kasuwar Turai).
Dabarun Canja wurin Rusal:Yayin da lokacin keɓancewa na EU na Rusal yana gabatowa, Rusal yana haɓaka canja wurinsa zuwa ɗakunan ajiya na Asiya (fitar da 154000 ton na alumina zuwa Rasha a cikin Maris), kuma ƙididdigar LME na Rusal ya tashi zuwa 82%.
2. Rashin tsaka tsaki na carbon yana haifar da haɓaka masana'antu
An ƙaddamar da shirin matukin jirgi don takaddun sawun carbon:Baise electrolytic aluminum labeling certification an aiwatar da takaddun shaida, kuma an ƙara maƙasudin ƙarfin samar da aluminium da aka sake fa'ida zuwa ton miliyan 6 a kowace shekara (tare da ƙimar ƙaramin carbon aluminum na Alcoa ya kai 15%).
Wasan farashin wutar lantarki:Farashin iskar gas na Turai ya sake komawa zuwa Yuro 35/megawatt sa'a, kuma an jinkirta ci gaba da samarwa a masana'antar Jamus ta Trimet Aluminum. Kwanciyar hankali na wutar lantarki a cikin gida a Yunnan ya zama wani wuri mai hadarin wadata.
Ⅴ. Outlook don gaba: Wasan ragi da canji
1. Alumina: Rasa fitar ruwa ruwa, mayar da hankali a gefe samar rage
Idan farashin ya ci gaba da zama ƙasa da yuan 3000/ton, ma'aunin raguwar samar da kayayyaki a cikin kwata na biyu na iya kaiwa tan miliyan 2 a kowace shekara, amma sabon ƙarfin samar da Indonesiya na iya daidaita tasirin samar da kayayyaki.
Dabarar dabara: Kulle farashin albarkatun kasa na dogon lokaci a farashi mai yawa kuma kula da Kamfanin Aluminum na China (601600. SH), wanda ke da ma'adinan kansa.
2. Electrolytic aluminum: damar tsarin a ƙarƙashin ƙananan ƙididdiga da rarraba manufofin
Haɓakawa na shekara-shekara na buƙatun sabbin makamashi (photovoltaic + sabbin motocin makamashi) shine tan miliyan 800000 zuwa tan miliyan 1, yana daidaita raguwar filayen gargajiya. Ana sa ran cibiyar farashin aluminum zata kula da 19500 zuwa 21500 yuan/ton.
Lokacin aikawa: Afrilu-22-2025