Dangane da yanayin rashin ƙarfi a kasuwannin ƙarfe na duniya, masana'antar aluminium sun nuna kaddarorin anti cyclical na musamman saboda ƙaƙƙarfan ƙaƙƙarfan ƙaƙƙarfan manufofin rufin ƙarfin Sinawa da ci gaba da faɗaɗa sabon buƙatun makamashi. A cikin 2025, yanayin kasuwa na wannan ƙarfe mai mahimmanci yana fuskantar sauye-sauye masu zurfi, tare da ƙarancin ƙarfin samarwa, canjin makamashi, da manufofin geopolitical haɗin gwiwa, suna tsara sabon tsarin saka hannun jari a ƙarƙashin ma'aunin wadatar wadata.
Tsaurin manufofin yana gina ƙasa, yana nuna tasirin rufin ƙarfin samar da Sinawa.
Tun lokacin da aka aiwatar da layin jan layi na ton miliyan 45 / shekara na samarwa a cikin 2017, yawan amfani da ƙarfin samar da aluminium na lantarki a kasar Sin ya kai darajar 98%. Ya zuwa watan Maris din shekarar 2025, yawan amfanin da ake samarwa a cikin gida ya kai tan miliyan 45.17, kuma yankunan da ke da karfin samar da wutar lantarki irin su Yunnan da Mongoliya ta ciki sun zama filin yaki na maye gurbinsu. Ya kamata a lura da cewa matsalolin da ake fuskanta a yanayi na samar da wutar lantarki a yankin Yunnan na kara yin fice - rage yawan noma a lokacin rani na iya shafar kashi 20% na aikin kasar. Wannan samfurin samar da “dogaran yanayi” ya haifar da gibin buƙatun ton miliyan a kasuwannin cikin gida. A sa'i daya kuma, fadada karfin samar da kayayyaki a ketare yana kokawa, yayin da nahiyar Turai ke fama da koma baya a sannu sakamakon tsadar makamashin da ake kashewa, haka kuma kasashe irinsu Indiya da Rasha na kokawa kan matsalar karancin samar da kayayyaki a duniya sakamakon karfin karfin kasar Sin.
Canje-canjen tsari akan ɓangaren buƙata, tare da sabuwar hanyar makamashi ta zama babban injin.
Bangaren buƙatu yana ba da fasalin "tuɓar hanya biyu": a cikin filayen gargajiya, manufofin haɓaka abubuwan more rayuwa na kasar Sin suna haɓaka haɓaka buƙatun aluminium don sabbin abubuwan more rayuwa kamar ƙarfin lantarki mai ƙarfi da jigilar jirgin ƙasa. Ana sa ran cewa yawan amfanin aluminum a cikin filayen da ke da alaƙa zai karu zuwa 15% ta 2025; A cikin filaye masu tasowa, ƙananan nauyin motocin lantarki da fadada ƙarfin da aka sanya na hoto ya zama babban haɓaka. Bayanai sun nuna cewa amfani da aluminium na sabbin motocin makamashi a kowace abin hawa ya karu da sau 2-3 idan aka kwatanta da motocin man fetur na gargajiya, kuma yawan adadin ci gaban fili na shekara-shekara na amfani da aluminum don firam ɗin photovoltaic da maƙallan ya kai 26%. Abin lura shine cewa tasirin aluminium a canjin makamashi yana fitowa a hankali a hankali, kuma ingancinsa da fa'idodin nauyi suna lalata kason kasuwa na kayan jan karfe. JPMorgan ya annabta cewa ƙimar buƙatun aluminium na duniya zai kai 4% nan da 2025, wanda ya zarce na jan karfe 2.1%.
Ƙarfafa wasanni na farashi da kuma fitowar damar tsarin a tsakanin kewayon oscillations.
A halin yanzu aiki na farashin aluminum yana gabatar da manyan halaye guda uku: na farko, LME farashin aluminium yana canzawa a cikin kewayon $ 2700-2900 / ton, yana nuna fa'idar yaƙi tsakanin ƙarancin wadatar kayayyaki da rashin tabbas; Na biyu, farashin cikin gida na aluminium na Shanghai yana goyan bayan sa ran hana samar da kayayyaki a Yunnan, kuma alamar 20000 ta zama abin da aka fi mayar da hankali kan gajerun wasanni; Na uku, hauhawar farashin alumina ya karu, kuma karuwar karfin samar da bauxite a Guinea ya kafa shinge na hana hana muhallin gida. Samfurin Morgan Stanley ya nuna cewa idan aka sami babban rushewar samar da kayayyaki, farashin aluminium na iya karya ta hanyar $ 3000 / ton, yayin da koma bayan tattalin arzikin duniya zai iya kaiwa matakin tunani na $2000.
Haɓaka matrix na haɗari, manyan masu canji guda huɗu suna buƙatar a sa ido sosai
Manyan abubuwan haɗari guda huɗu don yin taka tsantsan yayin saka hannun jari a masana'antar aluminum.
Na daya shi ne daidaita manufofin samar da makamashi na kasar Sin, wanda ya kamata a mai da hankali kan dakile karfin samar da makamashi mai yawa ta hanyar cinikin iskar Carbon.
Na biyu shi ne sauyin farashin makamashi a duniya, kuma matsalar iskar gas ta Turai da sauya wutar lantarki ta Yunnan daga lokacin bushewa na iya haifar da tashin hankali.
Na uku, ana samun sauyi a manufofin ciniki, kuma akwai barazanar sake sanya harajin Amurka kan kayayyakin aluminum daga kasar Sin.
Na hudu shine tasirin ja na sarkar gidaje, kuma daidaitawar kasuwancin gidaje na kasar Sin na iya haifar da raguwar 8% -10% na buƙatar ginin aluminum.
Shawarwari na Dabaru: Yi la'akari da yaƙĩni kuma ku guje wa haɗari na tsari
1. Tsagerun maƙasudin ƙarfin samar da kayayyaki: Mai da hankali kan manyan kamfanoni a yankuna masu rahusa irin su Yunnan da Xinjiang, waɗanda ƙarfin samar da su ya yi karanci a ƙarƙashin ƙarancin wutar lantarki.
2. Layout na sabuwar hanyar makamashi: Za a ba da fifiko ga masu samar da kayan haɓaka masu ƙima kamar firam ɗin hoto da batir.
3. Damar shinge: Kulle riba daga electrolyticaluminum samara lokacin taga gyaran farashin alumina.
4. Geopolitical hedging hadarin: Kula da ci gaban ayyukan Guinea bauxite kuma ku guje wa haɗari daga tushen wadata guda ɗaya.
Tsaye a lokacin 2025, kasuwar aluminium tana canzawa daga samfuran cyclical na gargajiya zuwa kayan haɓaka dabarun zamani. Ci gaba da kokarin da ake yi na manufofin samar da makamashi na kasar Sin, da zurfafa yin gyare-gyare a fannin makamashi a duniya, sun sanya wannan karfe ya zama mai jure wa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, da samun ci gaba mai daraja. Masu saka hannun jari suna buƙatar nemo madaidaicin tsarin rabon rabon dawowar haɗari a cikin daidaitawa mai girma uku na tsattsauran ra'ayi, amincin makamashi, da canjin buƙatu.
Lokacin aikawa: Mayu-20-2025