Hayakin da ke fitowa daga mashigin Hormuz yana haifar da mummunan tasirin sinadarai a cikin sarkar masana'antu ta duniya. A gefe guda, akwai "tsunami mai tsada" wanda katsewar samar da aluminum mai amfani da wutar lantarki ke haifarwa, a gefe guda kuma, akwai "rabin maye gurbin" wanda bullar danyen mai ke haifarwa. Lokacin da farashin aluminum zai iya kaiwa ga babban farashi na dala $4000/tan kuma hauhawar farashin mai ya sanya motocin lantarki mafaka mai aminci, sabuwar kasuwar motocin makamashi a shekarar 2026 tana tsaye a wani mawuyacin hali: ɓangaren farashi yana "zubar da jini" kuma ɓangaren buƙata yana "shagali". Wa zai biya kuɗin a ƙarshen wannan wasan?
1. Fashewar jijiyar aluminum: jinkirin 'girgizar samar da kayayyaki'
Idan mai shine tushen masana'antar zamani, to "aluminum" shine kwarangwal mai sauƙi. A wannan lokacin, 'jijiyar' wannan kwarangwal, Mashigar Hormuz tana fuskantar haɗarin yankewa gaba ɗaya.
Gargaɗin da Wang Yiwen, manazarci a Guangfa Futures, ya yi ba ƙari ba ne. Yayin da halin da ake ciki a Gabas ta Tsakiya ke ƙara ta'azzara, ƙasashe kamar Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa da Iran, waɗanda suka dogara sosai kan alumina da ake shigowa da su daga ƙasashen waje, za a iya tilasta musu bin sahunsu su rage yawan samar da kayayyaki a cikin makonni biyu zuwa uku masu zuwa. Wannan ba wai kawai dakatarwa ce ta ɗan gajeren lokaci ba, har ma da girgizar samar da kayayyaki da ba za a iya jurewa ba.
Lalacewar lokaci: Da zarar an rufe tankin aluminum mai amfani da electrolytic, zagayowar sake farawa na iya ɗaukar har zuwa watanni 6-12. Wannan yana nufin cewa ko da zaman lafiya ya zo mako mai zuwa, gibin samar da aluminum a duniya a 2026 ya riga ya zama ƙarshe da aka riga aka manta.
Girman gibin: Samar da kayayyaki a ƙasashen waje na iya zama ci gaba mara kyau, kuma gibin buƙatar kayayyaki a duniya na iya faɗaɗa nan take zuwa matakin tan miliyan.
An riga an rage farashin: idan aka samu fashewar karfi, faduwar farashin aluminum na LME na $3700-$4000 a kowace tan ba ta zama tatsuniya ba, amma akwai yiwuwar hakan.
Ga masana'antar masana'antu, wannan ba wai kawai wani ci gaba ne na dijital ba, har ma da sake fasalin ainihin zinare da azurfa.
2. Sabbin motocin makamashi: farashin da "aluminum" da buƙata suka takaita da "mai" ke haifarwa
A cikin wannan guguwa, sabuwar masana'antar kera motoci ta zama ƙungiya mafi rikitarwa: ita ce babbar wadda farashin aluminum ya tashi kuma ita ce babbar mai cin gajiyar hauhawar farashin mai.
1. Bangaren farashi: Kowace mota tana ɗauke da ƙarin yuan 760 na "harajin yaƙi"
Sha'awar rage nauyi a cikin sabbin motocin makamashi ya sanya su zama babban mai amfani da aluminum. Bayanai sun nuna cewa sabbin motocin makamashi masu amfani da wutar lantarki suna amfani da matsakaicin sama da kilogiram 200 na aluminum a kowace mota, kusan ninki biyu na motocin mai na gargajiya.Gilashin aluminumyana yaɗuwa sosai a cikin tsarin jikin abin hawa, maƙallan batir, cibiyoyin tayoyi, da tsarin sarrafa zafi.
Bari mu lissafa asusu:
Idan aka yi la'akari da karuwar farashin aluminum na yuan 3800/ton kwanan nan idan aka kwatanta da matsakaicin farashi a shekarar 2025, ga kowace mota mai amfani da wutar lantarki da aka samar, farashin kayan masarufi kawai zai karu kai tsaye da kimanin yuan 760.
Ga kamfanonin motoci da ke sayar da motoci miliyan ɗaya a kowace shekara, wannan yana nufin ƙarin kuɗin da aka kashe na kusan yuan miliyan 800.
Ga ƙananan da matsakaitan kamfanonin kera motoci waɗanda ke da ƙarancin riba, wannan yuan 760 na iya zama ƙaramin abin da ke karya bayan raƙumi, yana matse wurin zama nasu kai tsaye, har ma yana haifar da matsalar isar da kayayyaki.
2. Bangaren buƙata: "Canjin da ba a iya canzawa ba" wanda farashin mai ya faɗi 100% ya haifar
Duk da haka, ɗayan ɓangaren kasuwar yana da zafi. Man fetur na Brent ya zarce dala $110 a kowace ganga, kuma alkaluman da ke canzawa a tashoshin mai sun zama mafi kyawun allunan talla ga motocin lantarki.
Ana ci gaba da ganin abubuwan da ke faruwa daga Manila zuwa Hanoi:
Manila, Philippines: Matthew Dominique Poh, wakilin tallace-tallace a wani dillalin BYD, ya bayyana cewa adadin odar da aka yi a cikin makonni biyu da suka gabata yayi daidai da na watan da ya gabata. "Ya ce." Farashin mai ya yi tsada sosai.
Hanoi, Vietnam: Ziyarar abokan ciniki zuwa ɗakin nunin kayan tarihi na VinFast ta ninka sau uku. Cikin makonni uku bayan barkewar rikicin, shagon ya sayar da motoci masu amfani da wutar lantarki guda 250, tare da matsakaicin tallace-tallace na motoci sama da 80 a kowane mako, wanda ya ninka matsakaicin matakin a shekarar 2025.
Albert Park, Babban Masanin Tattalin Arziki na Bankin Raya Asiya, ya yi nuni da cewa: “Hauhawar farashin mai a koyaushe yana da amfani ga sauyawa zuwa motocin lantarki. Yana iya haifar da abubuwan ƙarfafa tattalin arziki don hanzarta wannan sauyi mai kore.
Wannan shine gaskiyar sihiri ta yanzu: masu sayayya suna siyan motocin lantarki saboda suna tsoron hauhawar farashin mai, amma kamfanonin motoci suna damuwa game da tsadar aluminum da ake amfani da shi wajen ƙera motocin lantarki.
3. Wasan Zurfi: Shin Farashin Zai Tashi Zai Zo?
Idan aka fuskanci matsin lamba biyu na "ƙaruwar farashi" da "ƙaruwar tallace-tallace", shin sabbin motocin makamashi za su ƙaru a farashi? Amsar ba za ta zama "eh" ko "a'a" kawai ba, amma dai daidaitawar tsarin daban-daban.
1. Manyan samfuran kasuwanci: Canja wurin kuɗi da kuma kula da farashi mai tsada
Ga manyan kamfanonin kera motoci masu ƙarfin ma'aunin farashi da ƙarfin farashi (kamar Tesla, jerin manyan motoci na BYD, da kuma samfuran alfarma), ƙarin farashin yuan 760 za a iya shagaltar da shi gaba ɗaya ta hanyar daidaita farashin siyarwa ko inganta tsarin. Dangane da hauhawar farashin mai, masu sayayya ba sa jin daɗin farashin yuan dubu kaɗan kuma suna mai da hankali sosai kan jimlar farashin mallaka (TCO) a duk tsawon lokacin rayuwa. Ƙara farashi na iya zama ruwan dare saboda buƙatar da ake da ita.
2. Tsaka-tsaki zuwa ƙasa da sabbin ƙarfi: matsin lamba na riba, sake fasalin rayuwa da mutuwa
Ga ƙananan da matsakaitan kamfanonin kera motoci waɗanda suka mai da hankali kan inganci da farashi kuma suka dogara da ƙananan riba don siyarwa cikin sauri, lamarin ya yi matuƙar muni. Ba su da isasshen ikon yin ciniki don matsa lamba ga masana'antun aluminum a sama, kuma ba sa iya ƙara farashi cikin sauƙi don tsoratar da abokan ciniki masu saurin damuwa da farashi.
Ƙarshen A: Sadaukar da riba da kuɗaɗen da ake kashewa, wanda ke haifar da tabarbarewar rahotannin kuɗi da kuma matsaloli a fannin kuɗi.
Sakamakon B: Rage amfani da aluminum da rage amfani da shi, amma wannan na iya shafar amincin ababen hawa da kewayon su, da kuma lalata suna.
Ƙarshen C: An tilasta a kawar da shi. Wannan zagayen "farashin aluminum+farashin mai" mai matakai biyu yana iya hanzarta sake fasalin masana'antu da kuma kawar da ƙungiyar 'yan wasa masu ƙarancin ƙarfin juriya ga haɗari.
3. 'Gabas ba ta da haske, Yamma tana da haske' a cikin sarkar masana'antu
Ya kamata a lura cewa duk da cewa farashin kera motoci cikakke ya ƙaru, kamfanonin aluminum na sama da kamfanonin motoci masu haɗin gwiwa tare da tushen aluminum za su amfana sosai. Kamfanonin da ke da ma'adinai a ƙasashen waje da kuma cikakkun sarƙoƙin masana'antu a cikin gida za su sami riba mai yawa a cikin wannan rikicin, wanda ke ƙara faɗaɗa gibin da ke tsakanin masu fafatawa.
4. Kammalawa: 'Mabuɗin hanzarta' a cikin rikici
Harbin manyan bindigogi a Gabas ta Tsakiya ba zato ba tsammani ya danna maɓallin "ƙara yawan aiki" don sauyin makamashi na duniya.
Duk da cewa hauhawar farashin aluminum ya kawo wa masana'antar masana'antu wahala, har ma yana iya haifar da sauye-sauyen hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na ɗan gajeren lokaci da kuma rufe kamfanoni daban-daban, daga mahangar babban ma'auni, hauhawar farashin makamashin burbushin halittu yana gyara dogaro da bil'adama ga makamashin gargajiya da ƙarfi mara misaltuwa.
Karin kudin yuan 760 yana da zafi, amma idan adadin da ke tashoshin mai ya sa mutane su yi shakka, wannan labarin ya riga ya sami amsa a zukatan masu amfani da shi. Ga sabuwar masana'antar kera motoci masu amfani da makamashi, wannan na iya zama "maganin goge kashi":
A cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, wasa ne mai zafi na farashi da riba;
A cikin dogon lokaci, yana da tasiri wajen ƙara yawan masana'antu da kuma maimaita fasaha (kamar ƙarfe mai ƙarfi mai ƙarfi wanda ba shi da zafi da kuma fasahar haɗakar simintin mutu don rage farashin aluminum na naúrar).
Lokacin Saƙo: Maris-26-2026