Moody's ya rage hasashen da yake yi na kimar bashi na Amurka zuwa mara kyau, wanda ya haifar da damuwa sosai a kasuwa game da juriyar farfadowar tattalin arzikin duniya. A matsayin ginshiƙan ƙarfin buƙatun kayayyaki, raguwar tattalin arziƙin da ake tsammani a Amurka da matsin ƙarancin kasafin kuɗi sun haifar da matsi biyu, wanda ya haifar da matsa lamba na ɗan gajeren lokaci akan kasuwannin tagulla da aluminium. Ko da yake faɗuwar dalar Amurka ya ba da wasu tallafi ga farashin, haɓakar saɓani na buƙatu da saƙa da rashin tabbas na manufofin sun ƙara haɓakar farashin ƙarfe.
Bangaren buƙatu: Magana tsakanin ƙanƙantar kayan aiki da toshewar fitarwa.
Rage darajar kimar lamuni ta Amurka yana tasiri kai tsaye ga tsammanin saka hannun jarin ababen more rayuwa, kuma tun farko gwamnatin Trump ta shirya lissafin kayayyakin more rayuwa na dala biliyan 500 na iya tilastawa ragewa, wanda ya haifar da raguwar bukatar aikin gini da tan 120000 zuwa 150000 a kowace shekara. A sa'i daya kuma, ana ci gaba da yin ta'azzara game da batun haraji tsakanin Sin da Amurka, inda ake ta yada jita-jitar cewa Amurka na shirin sanya harajin kashi 25% kan tagulla da aluminum da ake shigowa da su daga kasashen waje. Wannan zai kara farashin masana'antun cikin gida a Amurka da kuma dakile bukatar kayayyakin da aka sarrafa daga kasashen waje kamar bayanan martabar aluminum da bututun tagulla. Idan an aiwatar da matakan da suka dace na EU, kasuwancin aluminium na duniya na iya fuskantar gyare-gyare, da na Chinaaluminum fitarwazuwa Turai na iya fuskantar ƙarin farashin farashi na 10%.
Bangaren samarwa: Wasan tsakanin rage samarwa da sake farawa yana ƙaruwa.
Ana ci gaba da tabarbarewar bangaren samar da ma'adinan tagulla, inda samar da Codelco na Chile ya ragu da kashi 18% a duk shekara a cikin kwata na farko, sannan ma'adinan tagulla na Las Bambas na Peru ya rage yawan samarwa da kashi 30% saboda zanga-zangar al'umma. Duk da haka, kammala aikin gyaran na'urar a cikin gida ya haifar da karuwar 0.37% na wata-wata a cikin ingantaccen samar da tagulla a cikin Afrilu. Dangane da sinadarin aluminum, sake dawo da wutar lantarki a Yunnan ya mayar da karfin samar da wutar lantarki zuwa tan miliyan 43.64. Duk da haka, soke lasisin fitar da bauxite na Guinea ya haifar da damuwa game da samar da albarkatun ƙasa, wanda ya sa farashin alumina ya yi tashin gwauron zabi da kashi 12 cikin ɗari a cikin yini guda da kuma tallafin farashin ya haura zuwa yuan 17800/ton. Yana da kyau a lura cewa kayan jan ƙarfe na LME ya karu zuwa ton 187000, yayin da kayan aikin aluminum ya kasance a babban matakin 550000 ton. Har yanzu ba a fitar da cikakken matsi na ƙira ba.
Farashin da Manufofi: Tasirin Canjin Makamashi akan Ma'anar Farashi
Canjin makamashi na duniya yana haɓaka da raunana bukatar karafa na masana'antu na gargajiya. Haɓakawa na tsarin jadawalin kuɗin carbon carbon na EU ya haifar da haɓakar 8-10% a cikin farashin smelting na aluminum, kuma haɓakar buƙatun aluminium don photovoltaics na iya raguwa daga 25% zuwa 15%. Ƙaruwar samar da mai a cikin Amurka ya yi watsi da farashin makamashi, kuma an rage yawan kuɗin da ake samu na aluminium electrolytic zuwa $2500/ton. Koyaya, tsaurara manufofin muhalli na iya haɓaka kashe kuɗi don sabbin ayyukan gini a ƙasashen waje. A cikin gida, an karfafa manufar masana'antar karafa da aka sake yin fa'ida, da nufin kara yawan adadin tagulla da aka sake sarrafa zuwa kashi 40 cikin 100 nan da shekarar 2025, wanda zai iya sake fasalin tsarin samar da tagulla a duniya a cikin dogon lokaci.
Hankali na gaba: Damar tsarin ƙarƙashin haɓakar haɓaka.
Farashin jan ƙarfe na ɗan gajeren lokaci na iya gwada tallafi akan yuan 77500 / ton, tare da babban kwangilar Aluminum na Shanghai wanda ke mai da hankali kan gasar alamar yuan na 20000. Idan manufofin haɓaka abubuwan more rayuwa na Amurka sun gaza ga tsammanin, haɓakar buƙatun jan ƙarfe a cikin kwata na uku na iya sake bitar zuwa 1.8%, kuma farashin aluminium zai fuskanci haɗarin faduwar farashin $ 2500-2600 kowace ton. Ba da shawarar kula da manyan sigina guda biyu: 1) ko kayan jan ƙarfe na LME ya faɗi ƙasa da tan 150000; 2) Shin tsammanin Tarayyar Tarayya ta rage yawan riba a gaban jadawalin saboda tabarbarewar bayanan tattalin arziki. Bangaren masana'antu na buƙatar yin taka tsantsan game da haɗarin shinge da matakan ƙira masu yawa ke haifarwa. Masu saka hannun jari za su iya kula da ƙetare damar sasantawa iri-iri kuma su kama tagar gyaran farashin aluminum na jan karfe.
Kammalawa: Anchoring Logic Masana'antu a cikin Rashin tabbas.
Rage darajar ƙididdiga shine ainihin ƙananan ƙananan gazawar jagorancin tattalin arzikin duniya, kuma kasuwar tagulla da aluminium suna fuskantar canjin farashi daga "ƙarashin buƙata" zuwa "rushewar farashi". Masu saka hannun jari suna buƙatar ficewa daga tarkon rashin ƙarfi na ɗan lokaci, su mai da hankali kan yanayin canjin makamashi na dogon lokaci da sake fasalin tsarin samar da kayayyaki, da kama damar yin ciniki da aka samu ta hanyar cin karo da juna a cikin canji.
Lokacin aikawa: Mayu-23-2025